Roaring back to life: Nepal has doubled its tiger population—but at what price?

Just over a decade ago, there were 121 wild tigers left in Nepal, a figure that reflected their real risk of global extinction. A radical target was set at the Global Tiger Summit that year, asking tiger range countries—those with breeding tigers—to double their populations by 2022. Of the 13 countries that pledged, Nepal was the only one to achieve this goal.

Now, the number is at 355, predominantly in the country’s Terai lowland jungles and plains, with the biggest concentrations in the National Parks of Chitwan (128) and Bardiya (125). This success is a result of protecting key tiger habitats by partnering with local communities, and a zero-tolerance approach to poaching and illegal wildlife trades.

Undisturbed in their natural habitat, tigers are notoriously elusive and prefer to stay away from people. Despite this, the guides have witnessed a sharp rise in sightings of magnificent Royal Bengals on this protected land.

Army personnel, carrying assault rifles, are omnipresent in Chitwan, and form an effective deterrent against poaching for the lucrative Chinese pharmaceutical market. “There’s a triangle now between the community, the army and the park, including an awareness programme so that everybody understands why tigers are essential for a balance in nature,” explains Binod Chaudhary, a nature guide for 14 years in Nepal’s Chitwan National Park.

Although the 2010-2022 target triggered a remarkable comeback for tigers in much of South Asia, Russia and China, they remain on the Red List of Threatened Species and occupy just five percent of their range from a century ago. There are fewer than 4,000 in the wild—tigers are now extinct in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, with Malaysia and Myanmar in rapid decline.

Tourism has also been part of the solution. In 1973, the British owner of Tiger Tops safari lodge in Chitwan lobbied for the creation of Nepal’s first National Park around it, and staff pioneered a tiger monitoring programme that still runs today under the Nepal Tiger Trust. Park entry fees, charged to the many foreigners that visit, help fund ongoing conservation investments.

Nepal also leads the world in innovative policies that promote community participation in conservation, including ‘buffer zones’ for people whose lives might have previously relied on the parks, to provide continued access to natural resources such as grasses and forests.

However, while a leap in the tiger population can mean good business for some—tourists and accompanying guides are a frequent sight—it’s another story for those living and working in buffer zones. As the tiger population grows, they look to new areas to establish territories. Once they reach the edge of the park, the forest transitions rapidly to agricultural lands populated by humans. In the last year, tigers have killed three people every month on average in Nepal. In the previous five years, the number of fatalities was a combined total of 10.

“The underlying problem for communities in protected areas is that they do not have sufficient opportunities to participate in conservation and management.”

- Dr Teri Allendorf, biologist

A large proportion of Indigenous Tharu people live in the buffer zones around Chitwan National Park. In this country of multiple ethnic groups, Tharu are one of the biggest—and most marginalized. Their livelihoods being linked to forest activities, such as collecting firewood and grass for livestock, also puts them at higher risk of tiger attacks. Most incidents are down to tigers acting in defence when startled or threatened, but they are also thought to target people who are stooped over or crouching, mistaking them for four-legged prey.

“I’m sure in the coming years, human-tiger conflict will increase,” says Birendra Mahato, chairperson of Community Conservation Nepal and founder and director of the Tharu Cultural Museum and Research Center in Chitwan. “It’s not just tigers, but rhinos and elephants, too. The government didn’t make a proper plan for how to deal with human-wildlife conflict.”

While revenue from tiger-seeking tourists is said to be distributed across communities, Mahato believes most conservation benefits go to the wealthy, not the Indigenous people. “When a killing happens or crops are damaged, there is supposed to be a compensation scheme—but it’s not enough, and it takes too long,” he says. “These people sacrificed their ancestral land, yet neither the government nor NGOs support their income sources, their livelihoods.”

He also says better communication is needed after a tiger attacks, so local people know which locations to avoid. As a strategist for equality, he wants to see a special fund for marginalized people from National Park revenue, and more support for education and health systems.

The next few months will be crucial, as Nepal modifies its buffer zone regulations. “The underlying problem for communities in protected areas is that they do not have sufficient opportunities to participate in conservation and management,” explains Dr Teri Allendorf, a conservation biologist from the Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

One instant improvement, she says, would be to make buffer zone policies consistent with national policy and community forestry guidelines, regarding inclusion and pro-poor activities. As an example, community forestry policies require registration of both male and female heads of households, 50 percent women participation on committees, and that 35 percent of Community Forest User Group (CFUG) funds be allocated to pro-poor activities.

As the area around the National Park develops with more roads, and now a major railway is in the design phase, another issue arises. New research led by the University of Michigan’s Neil Carter, predicts that 39 percent of Chitwan’s adult tiger population could be wiped out over 20 years, due to vehicle collisions diminishing prey and tigers pursuing those prey being hit themselves.

In Chitwan, Birendra wants marginalized people to be represented in the buffer zone management committee, including Tharu citizens and women.

He says that ‘Smart Green Infrastructure’ development is needed—infrastructure planning that considers the effects on tigers and other wildlife—and pursuing projects only when they do not threaten the long-term persistence of tigers.

This bears relevance across the tigers’ global range: “New roads and railways are being built rapidly in Asia, often with little consideration of their impacts to nature or biodiversity,” he says. “If we’re serious about conserving endangered species in shared spaces with humans, we must consider jointly the benefits and costs of infrastructure development to both humans and wildlife.”

There is also much talk of ‘green corridors’ to link up habitats, which allows tigers more freedom of movement. “We need to think about habitat restoration initiatives that increase habitat availability and climate refugia [locations supporting an isolated population of a previously more widespread species] for tigers,” says Carter, “while also supporting the efforts of local communities to act as stewards of those forests and grasslands for the future.”

In Chitwan, Birendra wants marginalized people to be represented in the buffer zone management committee, including Tharu citizens and women. “If you ask the National Park and other officials, they’d say we have a democratic system, and we do,” he says. “But there are too many barriers. A change to the election system in buffer zones is necessary. We want to demand a say in policies.”

The governments of tiger-range countries are now collaborating to define global tiger conservation goals for the next 12-year lunar cycle, up to 2034. With community leadership at the core of progress to date, moving forward with that is set to be top of the agenda.

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