No, flights aren’t landing early. But airlines want you to think they are

It’s a good feeling when your flight arrives early, almost as good as an hour-long Zoom meeting that only takes 15 minutes and gives you back an extra 45. But what if that magic feeling was actually just a well-documented airline illusion? What if, rather than serendipitous jet streams, it was simple scheduling trickery designed by airlines to improve their ‘on-time arrival’ stats?

Here’s the deal: Flights aren’t landing early. But airlines want you to think they are.

In 2023, airlines have padded their arrival times by an average of 11 minutes, according to Josh Koebert of FinanceBuzz. Koebert analyzed millions of flight records to figure out the extent of “schedule creep” after noticing his flight times were getting longer. 

“Padding makes it seem like airlines are better at their jobs than they actually are, which benefits them when it comes to things like advertising and government reporting,” Koebert told Conde Nast Traveler.

Of course, it makes sense that airlines would want to do this. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics publishes extensive data about airlines’ reliability. When everything else is on par, you’re likely to choose the more reliable airline, especially if you don’t have much wiggle room for a short trip.

But there’s more to it than just attracting travelers. Not only do airlines stand to lose customers if they have a reputation for being late, but they can also get fined by government agencies. In the US, airlines such as United, American, and Southwest have all been fined at least USD$1 million each for tarmac delays, according to CNT. In the European Union, airlines owe passengers cash and other consolation prizes (such as airport meal vouchers and hotel rooms, when necessary) when they’re at fault for a delay.

According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, a flight is “delayed” if it arrives more than 15 minutes after its scheduled arrival time. In 2022, more than a fifth of flights were delayed, according to FinanceBuzz, and “without that extra padding time, the number of delayed flights balloons to more than 30 percent.” 

You could view this as nefarious airline trickery, but at the same time, that padding also just makes sense, according to Max Barrus, vice president of planning and revenue at Breeze Airways, told the Washington Post. 

“The reality is you can’t fix every single potential problem that could occur on a given day of travel, but you can build a little bit of padding into the schedule,” he says. “If you didn’t do that, nobody would ever be on time.”

Choosing which flights to pad and by how much is an airline-by-airline decision, which is why some airlines might advertise flights that appear faster or shorter than identical routes by their competitors. To fly smarter, if not necessarily faster, the Washington Post recommends traveling during less-busy hours—such as midweek and in the morning, “before the delays have a chance to stack up”—and flying in secondary airports that receive less traffic. Chicago Midway and Dallas Love Field are less plagued by snarls than Chicago O’Hare and Dallas-Fort Worth, the paper reports.

If you happen to depart late and the pilot announces that you’ll “make up time in the air,” as they so often do, well, we’re sorry to break it to you, but you’re almost definitely not going to be flying faster than you otherwise would have. 

“This is my favorite phrase,” Barrus told the Washington Post. “They’re not going faster necessarily. Usually, it means that somebody like me built the block times in order for them to be on time.”

So the next time you land and your flight crew reminds you for the tenth time over the intercom system that they are “happy to announce an early arrival” into your destination, you’ll know what’s really going on.